March election 'unlikely'

Forget a March election. At least that's what Iain Dale thinks, along with the BBC's Nick Robinson and George Osborne's advisers.

I was out with some friends tonight and the this subject came up. I have thought for some time the most likely month for a general election is April. The turnout at a general election is always higher than at local elections. With this in mind, Labour would get a bigger drubbing at the hands of the voters across town and county halls. Although Labour is bankrupt and hasn't got the cash to fight a general election, never mind the local elections, I still think Brown will steer clear of May 6 and he won't let this parliament run until June. I predict the general election will be on April 15. April 8 is unlikely as it is just after Easter.

If I am right, remember you read it here. If I'm wrong, just forget you ever read it!

Gordon Brown and 'The Sun'

If you make an enemy out of 'The Sun' newspaper, it certainly knows

how to twist the knife. If its latest attacks on the prime minister

are anything to go by, the Conservative Party can do without its

'help.'

Most fair minded people feel the prime minister is doing the right

thing sending handwritten letters to the next of kin of our troops

killed in action. He has very poor eyesight and writes using a

felt-tip pen because of this. He probably wrote the letter to Jacqui

Janes when he was very tired and seals the envelope himself. He

regards this as personal correspondence.

'The Sun' is trying to score cheap political points and is using a

mother's grief in the process. Publishing a transcript of a private

telephone conversation between her and the prime minister is

reprehensible. I'm sure Gordon Brown feels awful about this. His

sincere condolences have been twisted. This is not what politics ought

to be about.

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Sent from my mobile device

Will Cameron's announcement last week pave the way for a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU?

At a fringe event during the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester, David Trimble urged us not to give up hope with David Cameron. He said if Cameron does become prime minister, a list of demands will be presented to the EU and if those demands are not met, this will pave the way for a referendum asking the electorate if we want to be in or out.

The list of demands has just be announced. I don't believe for one moment he will get his way. I can only hope Lord Trimble is correct in his belief a referendum on our membership of the EU will be called. If this is Cameron's plan, I fully support him. Those of us who know Britain will be better off out also know we will only have one chance to win a referendum. Unlike referenda in other EU countries, we will not have the option of asking for another vote. Nor should we.

If Cameron does not plan a future referendum and is instead fudging the issue, he will face the wrath of the rank and file of the Conservative Party and the country. Time will tell, but in the meantime I and many others will be presenting our case and explaining why Britain has everything to gain from no longer being a member of the European Union.

The Berlin Wall: 13 August 1961 - 9 November 1989

Twenty years ago today, the biggest symbol of communism and oppression - the Berlin Wall - was being dismantled. Those of us who watched it happen on our televisions will never forget the images of joy and hope. I would have loved to have been there to share in that euphoric moment.

I have visited Eastern Germany many times over the last few years and the change has been breathtaking. People no longer have to worry their friends and neighbours may be spying on them for the Stasi. Gone are the ruins from the Second World War. Gone is the despair of having your life completely run by the state.

Tonight is a night for celebration. A new generation has grown up not experiencing first hand the horrors of communism. If you have no other reason to celebrate today, celebrate that.

X Factor Live Blog - Week 5 Results

Who is going tonight? I would love it be John & Edward, but I know I'm not going to get my wish. I think it will be Lloyd Daniels. He was poor last week, but allowances were made by the judges due to his sore throat. This week he has apparently recovered, but was still very poor.

UPDATE: 20:29 I didn't reckon much to the last offering from the Black Eyed Peas, but Leona Lewis is showing how much of a star she is. This girl has a very long career ahead of her.

UPDATE: 20:37 The waiting is almost over. The results are in. The contestants saved in order of announcement are:

Joe McElderry, Olly Murs, Stacey Solomon, Lloyd Daniels, Danyl Johnson, Jamie Archer.

I am shocked. Lucie is in the bottom two! The up-side to this should mean John & Edward will be sent packing by the judges, otherwise another great talent will be lost from the show.

UPDATE: 20:45 Lucie is up first singing One Moment in Time. She is shaky, but I guess it's to be expected. Now she is getting into her stride. Much better and a great ending.

Now John & Edward are about to start and are being booed on stage. They are singing 'Rock DJ.' Surprisingly they are not doing that bad a job of it, although as this song has a lot of talking in it, perhaps is not that surprising after all.

It's all down to Simon now and he is taking it down to the public vote. The act going is: Lucie Jones. Simon is protecting his acts by eliminating a possible threat. He said she couldn't win the competition. She could have won and it is one of those weeks where the public thought she was safe and didn't vote. This show really is becoming a joke. What's the point of having judges?

X Factor Live Blog - Week 5

It's that time again, folks. Who will go out after tonight's performance? Is it too much to hope it will be John and Edward?

1. Stacey Solomon - She looks good, but she doesn't sound good. I think Stacey is going to be a victim of the public vote in the next 2-3 weeks. Her performances are going downhill. 5/10

2. Olly Murs - He has a retro Beatles look. You have to hand it to Simon Cowell, he really does know the right songs to pick for his acts. Olly is good tonight. He has the style and stage presence. 8/10

3. Lloyd Daniels - Bad start. Cheryl says he has recovered from his bad throat. So what's the excuse for tonight? Poor singer. 3/10

4. Jamie Archer - Simon's look says it all. Poor start, but it's getting better. It was emotional towards the end and Louis really is looking like a petty council official. 6/10

5. Lucie Jones - A strong start, which not all can say tonight. She seems very comfortable on stage and this shines through her performances. 9/10

6. Danyl Johnson - The pressure is on him tonight. He's not great, but he's not bad either and based on the performance tonight, he should stay in. 7/10

7. John & Edward - Here we go. How bad can this be? There is something strange on the television. Rubbish. 1/10

8. Joe McElderry - It's time for little Geordie Joe. Not my words. Thank Cheryl for that. One of the things I cannot understand in this competition is the put-down of musical theatre. Perhaps it has something to do with the amount of musical theatre I have done. Well done, Joe. 8/10

Reflections on the last 48 hours

Firstly, I must apologise for the radio silence during the last two days. I have been deep in thought, considering where my political future lies. I have decided my future lies in the Conservative Party. I will explain why.

I have received many messages over the last 48 hours, but one person has stood out. Man in a Shed - who I found out tonight, whilst talking to him on the telephone - does not really live in a shed, convinced me to stay in the party. He understands where I am coming from and is sympathetic to my viewpoint. Others - and I still thank them for their messages - do not understand where I am coming from, and at times I could have easily resigned from the party after hearing from them, even though that was not their intention.

I am playing the long game. It may take many years to convince our political leaders there should be a referendum on our membership of the EU and it will take time to ensure the British people are convinced too, but when that time happens I will make sure I am at the forefront of a referendum campaign to say 'YES' we want Britain out of the European Union.

In the meantime, Britain will be much better off under a Conservative government. It is the Conservative Party that will have to sort out the mess 13 years of a Labour government has given us. I have been on a journey these past two days. I have not changed my mind about the EU, but I know the only chance of ever having change is under a Conservative government.

David Cameron's Speech

I will be writing about Cameron's speech, but I think it is better if I write it once I have been scraped from the ceiling. Needless to say, I am fuming and actively considering my position within the Conservative Party. I want the best for Britain, and although I believe Britain will be better off under a Tory government, rather than the shower we have at the moment, I still feel David Cameron is fudging the issue of Europe, rather than dealing with the problem head-on.

More tomorrow.

Bob Ainsworth must be replaced as Defence Secretary

I have written a post for 'The Conservative Blog' on Bob Ainsworth. To read it, click HERE.

David Wiltshire disgraces himself (again)

As a keen observer of all things political, I must confess that until recently I had never heard of David Wiltshire. He has been an MP since 1987 and seems to have enjoyed a life of relative anonymity until the past few weeks. He is the man who paid his own company over £100,000 of taxpayers' money from his MP's expenses account. Not a great way to become famous. Now he links the treatment of MPs to the treatment of Jews in Nazi Germany.

There are and have been some great parliamentarians of all political colours. Mr Wiltshire is definitely not one of them. The House of Commons will be richer for him going, rather than poorer. In other words; good riddance to bad rubbish

Has Alan Johnson shown himself to be a bully?

Alan Johnson is one of the few members of this government I like. I have said before he passes the pint test. He is someone who would be very good company in one of the many hostelries of Hull. This weekend though, I can't quite get my head around his thinking.

Professor David Nutt gave his expert opinion. Alan Johnson disagrees. As the Home Secretary is the man who has to make a final decision, I have no problem with him saying he is not going to go along with Prof. Nutt's advice, but I do have a problem with him not saying why, otherwise what is the point of having advisers?

Mr Johnson has shown himself as a man who doesn't know what he is talking about; has to stick to the party line and does what any bully would do; get rid of the person who is challenging him. Not that the Conservatives have been any better. Chris Grayling merely trotted out the party line. No doubt he and Mr Johnson will get a good write-up in the Daily Mail, but it does nothing for those of us who would like to know more. I would like to see a long interview with Prof. Nutt and hear his views. Then I would like the Home Secretary to counter his argument.

Just because Alan Johnson can fire his adviser is not a good enough reason for doing so. Bullies tend to be weak. Perhaps we are seeing the true side of Alan Johnson. I hope not.

X Factor Live Blog - Week 4 Results

Here's hoping John & Edward are going home tonight, but I don't think they will. I'm not going to predict who it's going to be. We'll just have to wait and see.

UPDATE: Rachel was fantastic last night. For me, her best performance so far. For her to go was wrong. Lloyd was poor last night and it didn't surprise me he was in the bottom two. Once again the twins keep on going like a knackered old banger that really should have been consigned to the scrap heap. The British public seems to like mediocrity when it comes to the way they vote on the X Factor.

The Conservative Blog

For more centre-right analysis, check-out The Conservative Blog. I was asked if I would like to contribute, and looking at the high standard or writing thus far, I was more than happy to accept.

Help Iain Lindley fight for change in Worsley & Eccles South

Councillor and blogger, Iain Lindley, will be contesting the Worsley and Eccles South seat for the Conservatives at the next general election. He is hard working man who is doing everything he can to fight this seat. Here is an extract from his campaign page on myconservatives.com.

Worsley & Eccles South includes the wards of Worsley, Boothstown & Ellenbrook, Walkden North, Walkden South, Little Hulton, Winton, Barton, Irlam and Cadishead.

Worsley & Eccles South is a notionally Labour-held seat, but at the last local elections, Conservative candidates outpolled Labour across the new seat by 12%. The Liberal Democrats are a poor third and have no Councillors in the constituency.

Recent polls suggest a close contest between Conservatives and Labour - it's a two-horse race between Gordon Brown’s Labour candidate and local Conservative Iain Lindley.

If you can give him some time to help him in his campaign, then get over to myconservatives.com. He can also be contacted on Twitter @cllrilindley.

Lord Heseltine's Prediction

Read some analysis from Lord Heseltine, which to a certain extent backs up my previous post on what is going to happen at the next general election.

Labour is in a worse position than the Tories were in 1996

Just over a month ago, I wrote saying why I believed a ComRes poll was correct. It had the Tories on 38% and both Labour and the Liberal Democrats on 23%.

Today, another poll puts the Tories on 42%, Labour on 25% and the Liberal Democrats on 21%. When you take into account the margin of error, nothing much has changed. Labour is still in the twenty-something doldrums and as Political Betting point out today, this is a far worse place than the Tories were in the same stage of a parliament in 1996.

My prediction is still the same. The voters want Labour out and will do it in any way they can. Although governments invariably lose elections, rather than oppositions winning them, expect the biggest anti-government vote for a century. It's coming.

X Factor Live Blog - Week 4

I'm not quite sure what Cheryl was thinking about tonight, but she should have looked in the mirror before she wore that outfit. Never mind, the X Factor is about to start. Here's hoping the acts perform better than last week.

1. Joe McElderry - A solid start to this week's show. He doesn't quite have a rock voice. A little too much 'boy band' for me. He'll be safe tonight. 7/10

2. Lucie Jones - I was worrying about Lucie tonight, especially at the start, but she has an edge to her voice when its needed and she is showing this tonight. She is the one to beat. A great performance. 9/10

3. Danyl Johnson - His confidence has taken a knock from last week and this is very evident. A boring performance from a singer I usually like. The big notes don't sound that big on the television. Maybe they sound better in the studio. 6/10

4. Lloyd Daniels - I think Cheryl is deliberately trying to get her acts kicked out. Terrible song choice and a dreadful performance. Absolutely awful. 3/10 (and I'm being generous.)

5. Stacey Solomon - For someone who usually has an opinion on just about everything, I'm finding it difficult what to make of this performance. As my late father would say, it was like the curate's egg; good in parts. 6/10

6. Jamie Archer - I'm sure I heard him at the pub the other week. Nothing special. 5/10

7. Rachel Adedeji - She keeps on getting better as her confidence grows. I like this girl. A great performance. 9/10

8. John & Edward - I know it's Halloween, but come on. Not only do they look frightening (which I suppose is understandable on October 31), but they sound frightening too. They will never rock me. This really is awful in the extreme. Will the great British public please put them out of their misery? 1/10

9. Olly Murs - A great 'Beatles' song. He doesn't rock my boat. This is a pop performance of a rock and roll classic. 5/10

The standard was not very high tonight. John & Edward deserve to go, as they were easily the worst of all the acts. Here's hoping they go.

Iain Dale & Anne Atkins 'in conversation'

I've just listened to a very heated exchange between Iain Dale and Anne Atkins on the Jeremy Vine Show.

It seems Anne Atkins believes Christian forgiveness does not extend to those who have had an extra-marital affair. I know affairs wreck lives and I am not for one moment condoning Elizabeth Truss' actions, but the affair was in the public domain, it ended four years ago and if her husband forgave her, what problem should we have? Having an affair does not mean you cannot discharge your duties as an MP. It means you are a flawed human being, just like the rest of us.

Scroll in 33 minutes and listen to the exchange.

Parents banned from their kids playground in Watford

There are times when I wonder what sort of a country I am living in. Common sense goes out of the window and is replaced by an excessive need to regulate and protect.

Watford Council has decided to ban parents from entering the playground their child is playing in unless they have been CRB checked. Instead they must leave them in the care of play rangers. I kid you not. Play rangers? This sounds like another non-job to add to a growing list of non-jobs created under Labour.

Although it is amazing no-one spoke out against this nonsense when it was proposed, I am not amazed Watford Council thought it may be necessary to adopt this approach. This is a result of the last twelve years of a Labour government who finds it necessary to control and micro-manage every aspect of our lives. In his leader's speech in Manchester, David Cameron spoke of how we need to stop treating children as adults and adults as children. Roll on that day, but this culture seems embedded in officialdom in this country and it will not disappear overnight.

Hat Tip: Dizzy

UPDATE: It seems as this story is not true. Click HERE to find out the real story.

Liz Truss - selection referred back to the full association

Anyone who has any sense in South West Norfolk Conservative Association would have looked up Liz Truss on the Internet. They would very easily have found out she had an affair with Mark Field. For the association now to show they have no confidence in her, is nothing short of disgraceful.

Liz Truss has my backing. What she did or what she does in her private life has nothing to do with me or anyone else. She is a hugely talented woman and will be an asset to Parliament. As the stone age relics from Norfolk don't realise this, the party must intervene, although at the moment I wouldn't blame her if she resigned. How can she have any confidence in the people who selected her a few days ago when they don't seem to have any confidence in her?

Brown to campaign for Blair

The breaking news tonight is that Gordon Brown is going to actively campaign for Tony Blair to become President of the EU.

The EU is a socialist superstate and I am sure Blair will fit in well. He will continue to grab more powers from nation states. He will continue to interfere in our lives, in very much the same way as he did when he was prime minister. The EU is a hopelessly inefficient organisation, very much in the same way as Blair's government was hopelessly inefficient.

I am certain Blair will feel at home, as would Brown if he was free to run for the job.